Uncertainty quantification is critical for ensuring robustness in high-stakes machine learning applications. We introduce HybridFlow, a modular hybrid architecture that unifies the modeling of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty by combining a Conditional Masked Autoregressive normalizing flow for estimating aleatoric uncertainty with a flexible probabilistic predictor for epistemic uncertainty. The framework supports integration with any probabilistic model class, allowing users to easily adapt HybridFlow to existing architectures without sacrificing predictive performance. HybridFlow improves upon previous uncertainty quantification frameworks across a range of regression tasks, such as depth estimation, a collection of regression benchmarks, and a scientific case study of ice sheet emulation. We also provide empirical results of the quantified uncertainty, showing that the uncertainty quantified by HybridFlow is calibrated and better aligns with model error than existing methods for quantifying aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. HybridFlow addresses a key challenge in Bayesian deep learning, unifying aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty modeling in a single robust framework.

Accurate and efficient temperature prediction is critical for optimizing the preheating process of PET preforms in industrial microwave systems prior to blow molding. We propose a novel deep learning framework for generalized temperature prediction. Unlike traditional models that require extensive retraining for each material or design variation, our method introduces a data-efficient neural architecture that leverages transfer learning and model fusion to generalize across unseen scenarios. By pretraining specialized neural regressor on distinct conditions such as recycled PET heat capacities or varying preform geometries and integrating their representations into a unified global model, we create a system capable of learning shared thermal dynamics across heterogeneous inputs. The architecture incorporates skip connections to enhance stability and prediction accuracy. Our approach reduces the need for large simulation datasets while achieving superior performance compared to models trained from scratch. Experimental validation on two case studies material variability and geometric diversity demonstrates significant improvements in generalization, establishing a scalable ML-based solution for intelligent thermal control in manufacturing environments. Moreover, the approach highlights how data-efficient generalization strategies can extend to other industrial applications involving complex physical modeling with limited data.

Neural architecture search (NAS) has been extensively studied in the past few years.

Practicing conversations with large language models (LLMs) presents a promising alternative to traditional in-person language learning. However, most LLMs generate text at a near-native level of complexity, making them ill-suited for beginner learners (CEFR: A1-A2). In this paper, we investigate whether controllable generation techniques -- specifically modular methods that do not require model fine-tuning -- can adapt LLM outputs to better support absolute beginners. We evaluate these methods through both automatic metrics and a user study with university-level learners of Japanese. Our findings show that while prompting alone fails to control output difficulty, the use of future discriminators (Yang and Klein, 2021) significantly improves output comprehensibility (from 40.4\% to 84.3\%). We further introduce a novel token-level evaluation metric, Token Miss Rate (TMR), that quantifies the proportion of incomprehensible tokens per utterance and correlates strongly with human judgments. To support future research in AI-assisted language learning, we release our code, models, annotation tools, and dataset.

We study the quadratic prediction error method -- i.e., nonlinear least squares -- for a class of time-varying parametric predictor models satisfying a certain identifiability condition. While this method is known to asymptotically achieve the optimal rate for a wide range of problems, there have been no non-asymptotic results matching these optimal rates outside of a select few, typically linear, model classes. By leveraging modern tools from learning with dependent data, we provide the first rate-optimal non-asymptotic analysis of this method for our more general setting of nonlinearly parametrized model classes. Moreover, we show that our results can be applied to a particular class of identifiable AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, resulting in the first optimal non-asymptotic rates for identification of ARMA models.

Neural network training is inherently sequential where the layers finish the forward propagation in succession, followed by the calculation and back-propagation of gradients (based on a loss function) starting from the last layer. The sequential computations significantly slow down neural network training, especially the deeper ones. Prediction has been successfully used in many areas of computer architecture to speed up sequential processing. Therefore, we propose ADA-GP, which uses gradient prediction adaptively to speed up deep neural network (DNN) training while maintaining accuracy. ADA-GP works by incorporating a small neural network to predict gradients for different layers of a DNN model. ADA-GP uses a novel tensor reorganization method to make it feasible to predict a large number of gradients. ADA-GP alternates between DNN training using backpropagated gradients and DNN training using predicted gradients. ADA-GP adaptively adjusts when and for how long gradient prediction is used to strike a balance between accuracy and performance. Last but not least, we provide a detailed hardware extension in a typical DNN accelerator to realize the speed up potential from gradient prediction. Our extensive experiments with fifteen DNN models show that ADA-GP can achieve an average speed up of 1.47X with similar or even higher accuracy than the baseline models. Moreover, it consumes, on average, 34% less energy due to reduced off-chip memory accesses compared to the baseline accelerator.

In the field of algorithmic fairness, significant attention has been put on group fairness criteria, such as Demographic Parity and Equalized Odds. Nevertheless, these objectives, measured as global averages, have raised concerns about persistent local disparities between sensitive groups. In this work, we address the problem of local fairness, which ensures that the predictor is unbiased not only in terms of expectations over the whole population, but also within any subregion of the feature space, unknown at training time. To enforce this objective, we introduce ROAD, a novel approach that leverages the Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) framework within a fair adversarial learning objective, where an adversary tries to infer the sensitive attribute from the predictions. Using an instance-level re-weighting strategy, ROAD is designed to prioritize inputs that are likely to be locally unfair, i.e. where the adversary faces the least difficulty in reconstructing the sensitive attribute. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method: it achieves Pareto dominance with respect to local fairness and accuracy for a given global fairness level across three standard datasets, and also enhances fairness generalization under distribution shift.

This paper presents a method using data-driven models for selecting actions and predicting the total performance of autonomous wheel loader operations over many loading cycles in a changing environment. The performance includes loaded mass, loading time, work. The data-driven models input the control parameters of a loading action and the heightmap of the initial pile state to output the inference of either the performance or the resulting pile state. By iteratively utilizing the resulting pile state as the initial pile state for consecutive predictions, the prediction method enables long-horizon forecasting. Deep neural networks were trained on data from over 10,000 random loading actions in gravel piles of different shapes using 3D multibody dynamics simulation. The models predict the performance and the resulting pile state with, on average, 95% accuracy in 1.2 ms, and 97% in 4.5 ms, respectively. The performance prediction was found to be even faster in exchange for accuracy by reducing the model size with the lower dimensional representation of the pile state using its slope and curvature. The feasibility of long-horizon predictions was confirmed with 40 sequential loading actions at a large pile. With the aid of a physics-based model, the pile state predictions are kept sufficiently accurate for longer-horizon use.

Scoring sleep stages in polysomnography recordings is a time-consuming task plagued by significant inter-rater variability. Therefore, it stands to benefit from the application of machine learning algorithms. While many algorithms have been proposed for this purpose, certain critical architectural decisions have not received systematic exploration. In this study, we meticulously investigate these design choices within the broad category of encoder-predictor architectures. We identify robust architectures applicable to both time series and spectrogram input representations. These architectures incorporate structured state space models as integral components, leading to statistically significant advancements in performance on the extensive SHHS dataset. These improvements are assessed through both statistical and systematic error estimations. We anticipate that the architectural insights gained from this study will not only prove valuable for future research in sleep staging but also hold relevance for other time series annotation tasks.